doi: 10.7763/IJET.2017.V9.1006
Multivariate Regression Model to Predict Failure of Pipelines
Narain Hariharan
1
,
Mustafa Murat Cobanoglu
2
,
Hakan Sahin
1
,
Jose Rafael Menendez
3
,
G. Saygili
4
- 1 Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840, USA.
- 2 BOTAS, Ankara, Turkey
- 3 Fugro Roadware, USA
- 4 University of Texas at Tyler, USA
Abstract
The objective of this study is two-fold. The first is to define the significant risk factors pertinent to the corrosion and excavation failures in the natural gas pipeline industry and subsequently check for reliability of the data in hand. The second is to propose a statistical model to predict the odds of survival of the pipeline for the next ten years. The data for the proposed statistical model was obtained from the U.S. Department of Transportation-Pipeline & Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) database of pipeline failure over the past 25 years. A statistical model to predict probability of pipeline failure in the forthcoming decade was developed by processing the data through the JMP software to get the significant parameters contributing to failure. The proposed model predicts that the chance of survival of the pipe, according to the data evaluated, decreases gradually with age for the initial 40 years of the pipeline life and remains within acceptable limits till its nominal expected life. Between years 40 and 60, the survival rate is almost constant and just about at the threshold level, if one assumes a threshold of about 50% survival odds for the forthcoming ten years. The interesting take away from the trend observed is the increase in survival odds beyond the age of 60. The possible reasons contributing to this trend and a detailed analysis of the results based on the proposed model are discussed in the paper.
Keywords
- Pipeline failure
- corrosion
- excavation
- multivariate regression model
How to Cite
Narain Hariharan, Mustafa Murat Cobanoglu, Hakan Sahin, Jose Rafael Menendez, and G. Saygili, "Multivariate Regression Model to Predict Failure of Pipelines," International Journal of Engineering and Technology, vol. 9, no. 5, pp. 398-404, 2017. https://doi.org/ 10.7763/IJET.2017.V9.1006
Copyright & License
Copyright © 2017 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).